Cymber Metal Trading Co., Ltd. – tirohanga waenga-wā mō te mākete koranu konumohe o te ao 2026–2030

Te Kamupene Hokohoko Metara Hiko, Ltd.(e kiia nei i muri nei ko "Cymber") kua whakaputa i tanaPūrongo Tirohanga Waenga mō te Mākete Konumohe Ā-Aoe kapi ana i te wā 2026–2030. Ko te whakatau a te pūrongo, whai muri i te rima tau o te tere o te horapa o te tuku me te rerekētanga hanganga o te tono whakamahinga mutunga, ka puta mārire te mākete koranu konumohe o te ao i te toenga koretake o mua i roto i ngā tau e rima e whai ake nei, ā, ka uru ki tētahi huringa hou e tohuhia ana e te whakataurite anō i waenga i te tuku me te tono me te hanga anō i te hanganga horapa utu.

I. Te taha tuku: Te puhoi o ngā tāpiringa kaha hou, te pikinga o te pikinga o te utu kei mua

Mai i te tau 2021 ki te tau 2025, neke atu i te 12 miriona tāne ia tau te nui o ngā tāpiringa kaha konumohe tuatahi hou i Haina, Īnia, Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti, me te Rawhiti o Waenganui, ā, ka tata te kaha whai hua o te ao ki te 150 miriona tāne. Heoi, mai i te tau 2026, ka tino heke ngā kaupapa hou e kitea ana. Ka whakawhāitihia te tuku pikinga matua ki tētahi iti noa o ngā kaupapa tīmatanga anō, whakawhānui rānei kua whakaaetia, me te tumanako ka heke te tipu o te kaha kupenga ā-tau ki te 1.5–2.5 miriona tāne.

I taua wā anō, ko te nekehanga whakarunga hanganga o ngā taumata utu pūngao, ko te whakatinanatanga ōkawa o teTikanga Whakatikatika Rohe Waro (CBAM), ā, mā te hōhonutanga o ngā whakahoutanga o te mākete hiko i Haina ka tino piki ake te utu katoa o te kaha taha. E ai ki ngā whakatau tata a Cymber, ko te utu 90 ōrau i runga i te pihi utu konumohe tuatahi o te ao i muri i te tau 2027 e matapaetia ana ka piki ake mā te 18%–25% ki te whakataurite ki te tau 2024, ka hua ake he hekenga nui o te ngāwari o te tuku whānui.

II. Te taha tono: Te rerekētanga i waenga i ngā rāngai tuku iho me ngā rāngai hou, engari kei te mau tonu te manawanui whānui

Mai i te tau 2025 ki te tau 2030, e matapaetia ana ka mau tonu te tere tipu ā-tau (CAGR) o te 2.8%–3.2% te whakamahinga o ngā koranu konumohe puta noa i te ao, ā, e ahu mai ana i ngā wāhanga matua e toru e whai ake nei:

1. Te Whakamāmā i te Waka (Ngā Waka Pāhihi + Ngā Waka Arumoni):
   I te mea e whai hua ana i te pikinga tonu o te urunga mai o ngā waka hiko hou o te ao, e matapaetia ana ka piki te hiahia mō te pepa konumohe, te rīpene, me te pepa konumohe mō ngā tono motuka i te tere ā-tau o te 6.5%–7.5%. Ko te whakapaunga hou katoa mai i te tau 2023 ki te 2030 e matapaetia ana ka tata ki te 8.5 miriona tāne, koinei te pūtake o te pikinga o te hiahia.
2. Ngā Pūngao Whakaahua me te Rokiroki Pūngao:
   Kei te kaha tonu te tono mō ngā anga konumohe, ngā hanganga whakairi, me te pepa konumohe pākahiko, me te CAGR e matapaetia ana mō te 5% mai i te tau 2026 ki te 2030. Ka tino kitea te tipu i ngā mākete i waho atu o Haina.
3. Ngā Rāngai Tuku Iho (Hanga, Tākai, Taura Hiko, me ētahi atu):
   Ka pōturi te tipu o ēnei wāhanga ki te 1%–2% ia tau, engari ka tautoko tonu te turanga nui i ngā mahi pumau.

I te katoa, e matapaetia ana ka eke te whakamahinga o ngā koranu konumohe puta noa i te ao ki te 108–112 miriona tāne (he rite ki te konumohe tuatahi) i te tau 2030, he pikinga ake tēnei mā te 18–22 miriona tāne ki te whakataurite ki te tau 2024.

III. Ngā Taonga me ngā Utu: Tērā pea ka tīmata te huringa tango taonga i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2026

Ka noho tonu te mākete koranu konumohe o te ao i roto i te wā kohikohi taonga tae noa ki te tau 2024–2025, me te tumanako ka eke te nui o ngā taonga whakawhiti me ngā taonga whakawhiti-kore ki te 11–12 miriona tāne rite. I te mea ka tere haere te tere o ngā tāpiringa taonga hou i te mea ka uru te tono mō ngā waka me te pūngao hou ki te wā whakaterenga, e matapaetia ana e Cymber ka neke ngā taonga o te ao mai i te kohikohi ki te tangohanga mai i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2026, me te huringa tango-taonga pea ka roa tae noa ki te mutunga o te tau 2028.

I runga i tēnei horopaki, ko te pokapū taumaha mō teUtu konumohe LME 3-maramae matapaetia ana ka piki haere mārire mai i te awhe o nāianei o te USD 2,200–2,400 mō ia tana. Ko te pokapū utu toharite i waenga i te 2027–2028 e matapaetia ana kei roto i teUSD 2,700–3,000 mō ia tanawhānuitanga. Nō reira, ko te tohariteUtu tūnga o te Tonga o Hainai roto i te mākete ā-rohe e matapaetia ana kei te RMB 19,500–22,000 ia tana. Tērā pea ka kaha ake te tautoko i ngā utu koranu me ngā utu tukatuka mō ngā hua pepa, rīpene, me te pepa konutea i waenga i te whakakaha o ngā kaupapa matua o te tuku me te tono.